As July wrapped up, the Denver real estate market continued to show signs of late-summer deceleration which is consistent with historical trends. While many agents still cling to the myth of a “Fall Pickup,” seasoned pros know better. There will still be homes bought and sold, but it is not usually to the same degree or the same volume of the first half of the year. According to market strategist Megan Aller of First American Title, the idea of a major resurgence after July 4th is more fiction than fact—especially in the traditional residential resale market. Although, this could easily change if interest rates were to come down in response to economic reports like the ones we just had.
That said, this summer didn’t come to a screeching halt. Instead, July saw a gradual softening with a subtle but steady shift that favored buyers who brought patience and sellers who brought realism. This has been the way this entire year has been.
Over half of the homes that went under contract in July had at least one price reduction. What's even more telling is that the average reduction amount is growing. Buyers are clearly sensitive to price and with more inventory to choose from, they’re not rushing to make a decision. Sellers who nailed their pricing and presentation from the start had a distinct advantage, but this is not true across all areas and price points.
Takeaway for Sellers: If you’re not priced right out of the gate or if your home doesn’t shine, expect it to sit for a little while. Buyers are cautious, curious, and willing to wait for value and price reductions.
Buyer behavior in July was tepid to say the least. Buyer activity dipped slightly compared to the previous week and stayed flat year over year. Showings were actually up year over year, but the number of buyers writing contracts remained sluggish. The average home required more than 15 showings to go under contract which is a number that reflects the growing buyer selectivity and hesitation.
Translation: They’re looking, but they’re picky and they’re not into overpaying.
While active listings held relatively steady in July, the number of new listings began to taper off as they always do around school starting. Sellers seem to be catching on that the best window to list a home in Denver is between February and April. The number of “Coming Soon” listings fell week over week, even though they’re still up year over year.
For Buyers: Now may be your best chance to negotiate, because with more options and slower demand, you have more leverage.
Median days on market rose again in July. Compared to last year, the gap continues to grow. This is especially important for sellers, as many are still operating under expectations set by the ultra-fast pace of 2021 and 2022 which were highly unusual markets that we won't be seeing again for a long while if ever again. Today’s buyers are more deliberate and more risk-averse. With the higher cost to borrow money and no guarantees that there is an end in site for those rates, buyers are being more strategic with their decisions even though buying a home now vs 2021-22, they are getting better deals, better prices, and having repairs made that have been out of the question for years.
Pro tip: Sellers should be prepared to stay market-ready longer and price reductions should be viewed as a strategic tool, not a sign of failure.
Another important insight from Megan Aller is that not all properties are following the same trend lines. For example, the market for condos in Aurora is playing a very different game than the market for a $700K single-family home west of I-25. Understanding submarkets is essential right now as blanket strategies don’t work.
In short: Not for traditional resale homes that we foresee right now unless we see a nice reduction in interest rates which is something we have all been hoping for.
While there is movement in new construction, investor activity, 1031 exchanges, and relo deals during the second half of the year, traditional resale activity tends to decline after the Fourth of July and doesn’t usually pick up meaningfully until spring.
We’re in a cautious, data-driven market where strategy matters more than ever.
For sellers: Pricing, presentation, and patience are your best friends.
For buyers: There’s opportunity in the calm now especially if you're pre-approved and ready to act.
For agents: Don’t chase myths. Chase data.
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